Wednesday, January 30, 2019

The UK Will Not Leave the EU.

Warning note: all predictions, especially concerning the future, tend to be wrong.

The Spellman amendment showed there was no Parliamentary majority for a No Deal Brexit. It is not legally binding but certainly is politically binding; we can now rule out crashing out with nothing but WTO rules.

Other amendment involving delaying Brexit were lost.

The Brady amendment was passed, on a slim majority, so Theresa May can go back to the EU and tell them what Parliament wants. The EU have said, repeatedly, clearly, unequivocally and for very sound and understandable reasons, that there will be no renegotiation. She is wasting her time. In this case the time twixt now and February the 13th when the House of Commons revisits the matter.

As Caroline Lucas (and many others in various ways) described it all, it is "Pure fantasy".

What are we then left with?

Withdrawal of the Article 50 letter. It has been established that this can be done, unilaterally, by the UK Government. The Withdrawal Act will have to be repealed but this can be done by passing a simple Repeal of the Withdrawal Act Bill.

There will follow legislation to enable a People's Vote. This would be carried out with much closer scrutiny of campaign spending and with an electorate that is much wiser and with a cohort of elderly voters replaced by a new cohort of younger ones. Legality, knowledge and demography will ensure a substantial majority for remaining in the EU.

The EU, being a democratic institution, will allow the necessary delay in the UK part of the EU elections, allowing UK MEPs to take their seats in the EU Parliament.

What then happens to domestic politics is shrouded in the clouds but the UK economy, despite being firmly back in the EU, will take a substantial hit, much business already having been lost. The blame will be seen to lie with the Conservative Party, Corbyn's fence-sitting turning out to be a master-stroke of blame avoidance.

Looking on the bright side, the Conservative government will fall, the DUP no longer having any reason to support them, and a general election will produce a landslide victory for Labour. To keep the working class leave voters on board Prime Minister Corbyn will ennoble Yanis Varoufakis and offer him a cabinet post with special responsibility for promoting EU reform through support of DiEM25.

Farm diversification will include unicorn herding.

I painted my ceiling.

P.S. Here's the People's Vote Bill