Monday, March 30, 2020

Coronavirus 19

30th March 2020

Over the past 18 editions of this series of mini-blogs I have stressed the uncertainties. Here I try to constrain the uncertainty based on what we surely know.

The UK has now seen 1228 deaths.  (Update 31st March:  1789) (update 1st April: 2352)
The numbers are rising about every three days.
It takes, typically, almost three weeks from infection till death.
Most of the people who die over the coming three weeks have already been infected.
It is reasonable to assume that the infection rate has been doubling every 3 days, at least until recently when stricter stay at home measures were announced and adhered to.
Therefore the deaths over the coming days are already baked in.
15 days, five doublings, we see almost 40,000 deaths.
Three weeks, seven doublings, we pass 150,000.

If the current measures on lockdown are effective we should see the inflection in the logistic curve in a couple of weeks time, with the increase in deaths then falling off.

The Government is not telling us numbers like these. Is the Government telling us the truth? The whole truth?


And here is a message from Rupert Read, a philosopher.


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