Coronavirus 43 React

Today sees the publication of the latest Real-time Assessment of Community Transmission (REACT) Study from Imperial College.

Here is the actual study with all the data.

And here is their Summary.

It doesn't make pleasant reading but neither should it come as a surprise to those who have read the previous 42 episodes of this Coronavirus Blog.

For some while now the government has given up the pretence of following the science. The advice for a 'circuit break' by SAGE in September was ignored. The Six-Week Plan from Independent SAGE was ignored. The Covid-Secure UK Plan from March fo Change was ignored. Links in my previous blog Coronavirus 40 A Plan.

Government, many politicians and signifacant sections of the popular news media have not learnt the lessons of the spring, still do not understand the true nature of exponential growth and continue to downplay the dangers of the pandemic.

Chris Giles, Economics Editor at the Financial Times yesterday produced his latest estimate of the excess deaths that have resulted for the disease: 67,500.

Scientists from University College London and elsewhere have launched a dashboard, updated in real time, that brings together covid related data, something that should have been created months ago by government. Data are the basis for information and an informed public is vital.

We will watch the death toll mount, with tens of thousands of further avoidable deaths over the coming weeks.

What to do? To minimise further deaths and suffering from long covid we need to stop the virus spreading. To do that people must stop moving about and stop meeting. We need a national lockdown even more stringent than that in the Spring. The idea of 'balancing' covid restrictions against harming the economy is nonsense. Dead people don't contribute to the economy, ill people are a drain on the economy. Those who fail to follow the scientists' advice bear a heavy responsibility for the death and suffering we will be witnessing.

It's up to each and every one of us.